Strategic Foresight Methods for policy making in energy sector (Designing a Foresight Framework for Iran's Natural Gas industry based on CNG)
(2/22/2013) - gas issues

Keywords: foresight methods, energy policies, scenario planning, Delphi survey,

STEEP V, system dynamics, CNG filling facility , Natural gas vehicles (;NGV';s)

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Abstract
Market of natural gas vehicles (NGV's) and particularly CNG's, is defined in Iran as
one of the measures of growth and development in the energy sector and as a policy to
manage the energy resources, energy security, targeting of subsidies and reduce air
pollution and CO2 emissions. Although, the fuel infrastructure is still widely absent but
several national and international stakeholders have interest in a substantial market
share of NGV's and CNG?s. In particular, some countries like Iran feature a lack of
energy foresight experience or in any case of strategic foresight energy planning while
for several countries future-oriented studies in the energy field have been regularly
performed and their results broadly used for the elaboration of national strategies. Even
though, Iran has the second proven natural gas reserves, the natural gas industry,
running their business mainly on distributing gas for households and industry without a
significant market share of export. This paper aimed to provide an overview of foresight
cultures and dynamics across the world by reviewing the state of the art of energy
foresight in selected studies, projects and a series of country reports (CR) to provide an
updated picture of the energy foresight approaches and practices all around the world,
highlighting strengths and weaknesses identified in applying energy foresight methods
and tools and at the end, designing a foresight framework for policy making in the field
of energy based on natural gas and its products like CNG. The approaches discussed
in this paper focused on foresight methods and also system dynamics to design a
foresight framework for stakeholders and decision-makers for the futures policy making.
Keywords: foresight methods, energy policies, scenario planning, Delphi survey,
STEEP V, system dynamics, CNG filling facility , Natural gas vehicles (NGV's)

other

Email: fsharbafian@energyseec.com
Website: www.energyseec.com
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شنبه 21 تير 1399
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کلمه عبور:
عضوبت و استفاده از خدمات سايت
عضويت در کنسرسيوم

 


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