an Integrated Model of Futures Studies Methods to Energy Foresight: case study of Iranian energy industry
(12/1/2014) - Iran Energy Economics paper

Keywords: Foresight, Energy, Cross Impact Analysis, Scenario building, PEST, MICMAC


The aim of this paper is to utilize the Global Business Network (GBN) scenario-building method to create a framework for the future of the energy sector of Iran. This framework helps to develop more resilient conservation policies when faced with uncontrollable, irreducible uncertainty. This method is based on significant factors and critical uncertainties that potentially have an impact on the future of the energy industry. In this paper, a combination of the foresight methods such as Delphi, Environmental Scanning, PEST analysis and Cross-Impact Analysis was used. Also, MICMAC as a strategic foresight software program has been utilized for scenario-building. Semi-structured interviews regarding key factors of the energy sector were gathered and were categorized into four main fields using a PEST strategic analysis tool. Cross-impact analysis was performed via a questionnaire. Foreign investment in the energy sector, sanctions and the probability of war and terrorist attacks were identified as the three key factors and critical uncertainties of the Iranian energy sector. Using these critical uncertainties, a Schwartz scenario cube and all the information gathered from experts, three scenarios were developed: technology-intensive, stagnation and self-sufficiency.
Keywords: Foresight, Energy, Cross Impact Analysis, Scenario building, PEST, MICMAC






چهار شنبه 18 تير 1399
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عضوبت و استفاده از خدمات سايت
عضويت در کنسرسيوم


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