Scenario-Based planning for Energy foresight Case study: Iran’s Transportation Industry
(12/3/2014) - Iran Energy Economics paper

Keywords: Transportation, Energy, Scenario planning, Foresight.





Transportation has important effects on mobility, economic development, environmental quality, government finance and the quality of life. The vehicle ownership, efficiency of vehicles, public transportation, transport infrastructure, per capita income, cost of vehicle use, and fuel prices are among the factors which are shaping the trend of oil demand in this very important sector. In this paper we aim to utilize a combination of the foresight methods such as Delphi, Environmental Scanning, and Scenario-Based planning. This well-established framework helps to develop more resilient conservation policies when faced with uncontrollable, irreducible uncertainty. This method is based on significant factors and critical uncertainties that potentially have an impact on the future of the transportation industry. Key factors of the transportation industry were gathered by performing semi-structured interviews. They were categorized into five main fields using environmental scanning as strategic analysis tool. Oil price and economic growth are selected as the two key factors and critical uncertainties of the Iranian transportation industry. Using these critical uncertainties, and all the information gathered from experts, four main scenarios that express different modes of oil price and economic growth are developed, namely: Sustainable Growth, Oil Growth, Towards Progress, and Progress Crises.
Keywords: Transportation, Energy, Scenario planning, Foresight



يکشنبه 15 تير 1399
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عضوبت و استفاده از خدمات سايت
عضويت در کنسرسيوم


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