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آمار بازديدکنندگان: بازدید این صفحه: 20 مرتبه نمایش این صفحه: 20 مرتبه
  بازدید کل سایت: 1759 مرتبه نمایش کل سایت: 1784 مرتبه

Outlook Model of Renewable Energies in Iran up to 2030
(10/26/2010) - English Energy books

The main objectives of the current study are estimation of technical electricity potential of solar, wind, geothermal and small hydro in Iran, evaluation of the economic viability under current energy policies, and forecasting the share of these renewable energies in installed electricity capacity and electricity production up to 2030.  In addition, Iran’s renewable policies are compared with some selected European countries to reveal the pros and cons of the prevailed polices that in turn provides policy implications.

Based on the specified available solar trough technology, solar area, average solar hours, average solar direct irradiation, the technical potential of solar electricity was estimated at 14.7 TWe. The potential of wind, small hydro and geothermal were estimated at 4069 MW, 21415 MW, 35723 MW respectively.

Under current energy policies, combined solar power plants, SHPP, wind and geothermal are economically viable. These huge RES’s potential can be realized conditional to availability of technology, investment capital, human capital and other resources along with a long-term driven renewable energy policy.

Due to high growth rate of electricity demand in Iran, the nominal installed capacity (;from all sources) has increased by 8.9% per annum during 2001-2007.  Assuming a flat growth rate of 5% per annum, the nominal installed electricity capacity will reach to 139298 MW in 2030. In the reference scenario the share of RES in total installed electricity capacity is expected to be about 2% in 2030. It is expected that the cumulative RES installed capacity will reach 2.8 GW in 2030 that requires more than 2800 million US dollar investment during 2010-2030. More than 60% of this investment will be likely allocated to small hydro, 20% to geothermal, and 10% each to solar and wind electricity projects. The research concludes that a comprehensive long- run package of renewable energy policies that at least includes removal of fossil fuel’s implicit subsidies, guaranteed RES purchase price or any other targeted financial supports and finally RES targets, may set the scene for a considerable share of RES in the primary energy basket of Iran in the future.


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List of Contents ………………………………………………..…...

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List of Figures…………………………………………………...….

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List of Tables …………………………………………………...…..

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Chapter 1: Overview of energy market in Iran ……………………..

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1.1.   Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………

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1.2.   Objectives, Questions and methodology of research ………………………………..

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1.3.   Overview of electricity market  ……………………………………………………….

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1.3.1. Electricity generation and consumption in Iran ………………………………………

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1.3.2. Electricity prices in Iran ………………………………………………………………

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1.3.3. Implicit electricity subsidies in Iran …………………………………………………..

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1.4.   Policies for RES ………………………………………………………………………..

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Chapter 2: Wind electricity in Iran ………………………………

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2.1. Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………

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2.2. General Information …………………………………………………………………..

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2.2.1. World installed electricity capacity. .…………………………………………………

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2.2.2. Average investment cost ……………………………………………………………...

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2.2.3. Job creation  …………………………………………………………………………..

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2.2.4. Capacity of wind turbines …………………………………………………………….

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2.3. Wind electricity evolution in Iran …………………………………………………….

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2.3.1. Installed wind capacity in Iran………………………………………………………...

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2.3.2. Wind energy generation in Iran……………………………………………………….

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2.3.3. Wind energy protection policy ……………………………………………………….

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2.3.4. Wind technology in Iran ……………………………………………………………...

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2.3.5. Negative and positive externalities …………………………………………………...

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2.3.6. Fossil fuel saving ……………………………………………………………………..

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2.4. Estimation of technical potential of wind electricity in Iran………………………...

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2.4.1. Methodology ………………………………………………………………………….

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2.4.2. Wind speed and wind power…………………………………………………………..

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2.4.3. Capacity factor………………………………………………………………………...

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2.4.4. Estimation of wind capacity potential…………………………………………………

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2.5. Economic feasibility of wind electricity projects……………………………………..

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Chapter 3: Solar thermal electricity in Iran……………………...

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3.1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………….

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3.2. General Techno - economical information of solar thermal electricity ……………

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3.2.1. Technology types of solar thermal power plant ………………………………………

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3.2.2. Position of technology’s type …………………………………………………………

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3.2.3. Installed capacity of solar thermal power plants by countries………………………...

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3.2.4. Environmental impacts………………………………………………………………..

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3.2.5. Fact and figures on solar thermal power plants ………………………………………

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3.3. Solar energy in Iran …………………………………………………………………..

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3.3.1. Water heating …………………………………………………………………………

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3.3.2. Photovoltaic …………………………………………………………………………..

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3.3.3. Solar thermal power plant …………………………………………………………….

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3.4. Solar thermal electricity potential in Iran …………………………………….

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3.4.1. Methodology ………………………………………………………………………….

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3.4.2. A specific direct solar generator power plant…………………………………………

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3.4.3. Sunny hours by provinces …………………………………………………………….

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3.4.4. Solar Areas in Iran…………………………………………………………………….

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3.4.5. Solar thermal electricity potential by provinces in Iran……………………………….

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3.5.Economic feasibility……………………………………………………………………. 

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Chapter 4: Small hydropower in Iran…………………………….

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4.1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………….

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4.2. General techno-economical information……………………………………………...

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4.2.1. Environmental impact…………………………………………………………………

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4.3. Installed capacity in the world………………………………………………………...

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4.4. Hydropower in Iran……………………………………………………………………

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4.4.1. Small hydropower in Iran……………………………………………………………..

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4.5. Technical potential and feasibility of SHPP………………………………………….

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Chapter 5: Geothermal electricity in Iran………………………..

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5.1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………….

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5.2. General techno-economical information……………………………………………...

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5.2.1. Cost parameters of a geothermal power plant…………………………………………

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5.2.2. Geothermal and job creation…………………………………………………………..

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5.2.3. Lead-time by different energy technologies…………………………………………..

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5.2.4. Comparison of capital cost…………………………………………………………….

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5.2.5. Environmental impacts………………………………………………………………..

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5.3. Estimation of technical potential of geothermal energy……………………………..

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5.3.1. Methodology…………………………………………………………………………..

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5.3.2. Geothermal in Sahand-Sabalan area (Meshkinshahr)…………………………………

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5.3.3. Geothermal map of Iran……………………………………………………………….

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5.4. Technical potential of geothermal in electricity production………………………...

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5.5. Economic feasibility……………………………………………………………………

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Chapter 6: Comparison of RES in Iran and European countries

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6.1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………….

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6.2. Renewable energy in EU and Iran…………………………………………………….

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6.2.1. RES production………………………………………………………………………..

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6.2.2. Installed capacity in Europe and Iran………………………………………………….

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6.3. Policies to support RES in EU and Iran……………………………………………...

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6.4. Renewable energy targets in EU and Iran……………………………………………

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6.5. Employment and job creation by renewable in EU and Iran……………………….

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Chapter 7: Prospect of renewable electricity production up to 2030………………………………………………………………….

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7.1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………….

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7.2. Methodology……………………………………………………………………………

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7.2.1. RES composition………………………………………………………………………

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7.3. Trend of installed capacity and investment in RES in Iran up to 2030 ……………

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7.4. Forecast of RES electricity production in Iran (2010-2030)………………………...

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7.5. Fossil fuel saving………………………………………………………………………..

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7.6. Avoided emission by renewable……………………………………………………….

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Chapter 8: Conclusion……………………………………………..

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References…………………………………………………………..


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Dr. M. Mazraati & N. Sharbafian & F.Sharbafian

Email: mo_mazraati@yahoo.com
Website:
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